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Totally off-topic thread
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| Watsisname | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 05:17 | Message # 421 |
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| Quote (midtskogen) So if you have a foot in more than one discipline, good for you. Thanks. Growing up, my interests were all over the place, but always involved natural science. I became fascinated in astronomy when I was 3, but was also interested in meteorology (I was hooked on the Weather Channel and wanted to be a storm chaser.) :P As I got older I studied a little bit of chemistry, mathematics, genetics, physics, and geology. But I obviously can't study everything. So I'm focusing on what interests me most -- astrophysics and planetary processes, particularly with exoplanets.
Quote (midtskogen) I'm under the impression that many astrophysicists downplay the CO2-temperature link and put much faith in the sun/cosmic ray link. [etc]
Really? I find that rather surprising. I mean yeah, scientists do have a tendency to focus on their field more than others (naturally, we are human beings too!), but in my experience most astrophysicists simply don't have much knowledge on the subject (they're more interested in other things), so they trust to the expertise of those who do. Those that do say that the CO2/temperature link is much more important than the latter. Cosmic rays do appear to have an effect on cloud seeding, but the over impact on climate is more of a fine tuning, like solar activity.
Quote As I wrote previously, the number that is the answer to the sensitivity question is in my opinion less interesting scientifically than the reasons for that number. I agree with you; science is about finding out why things happen the way they do, because this gives us insight. This is why scientists go into great detail figuring out the reasons for that number. This is why there are hundreds of papers per week on the various aspects of climate sensitivity. If you take the time to look through the current literature, it is incredible how specific some of these studies are.
Any good professor of physics will tell you that he/she cares more about how you arrive at a solution, than what the solution itself actually is.
Quote So even if the probability distribution actually nails it, we don't necessarily know the reasons. If you try to model something and it turns out that however you make the models, you get basically the same number out, then, yes, you get a really convincing probability distribution, but you will still have absolutely no clue what's going on in the physical world, since even false causes give the same result and you can't know that you picked the right model. [etc]
Okay, I understand your point but I don't think it is an accurate conclusion. Remember: although it is very difficult, we can disentangle and test each of the components that goes into climate sensitivity, and this kind of work is going on constantly. This is part of why climate science is such an active and extensive field. We absolutely do have a good, though by no means complete, handle of what is going on in the physical world. If we did not, then the agreement between different models and different physical evidence is an incredible coincidence with no rational explanation. If the actual climate sensitivity turns out to be very different than 3°C, we will be able to figure out where we were wrong. And if it's right on the money, there will be scientists who will continue to study the details because that's what good scientists do (and because they're probably interested in it).
Quote The geological aspect is interesting. There absolutely must be a beautiful thermostat. Otherwise we wouldn't have been around.
Oh yes, I find this extremely fascinating. I've had some incredible discussions with one of my professors about the "CO2 / rock-weathering thermostat" and its role in Snowball Earth episodes. If you're not familiar with it you might enjoy the read. Earth history is amazing; I wish I could learn all of it.
I gotta cut this post short here, but let me know if there's anything you'd like to continue discussing; I'm enjoying our talk.
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 05:54 | Message # 422 |
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| Quote (expando) Even if there is Climate Change, in a Darwinian sense this is good as it forces adaptation = evolution. Since the adaptation would not be a result of genetics, this has nothing to do with biological evolution. Also, by your same logic, murder being legal would be a good thing, since it would force people to adapt and so those who could avoid being murdered or could murder all their potential killers would make the world stronger... right?
Your method of seeing the world is dangerous and foolish, and has led to enough trouble in human history already, including many of the issues we currently face.
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| expando | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 07:04 | Message # 423 |
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| HarbingerDawn, people with the genetic markers favourable to climate change will tend to survive, those without the genetic markers will tend to perish. It depends which attributes are favoured, it could be physical attributes that are able to withstand higher temperatures or it may be higher intellect that is selected where people build technological shelters to protect themselves from the elements. The naked body of man in many areas of the world is not fit for the environment, man must use clothing, tools and shelter with heating to survive, man does not have a thick covering of fur like most animals do, in the wild he must use his intellect and knowledge passed down from ancestors in order to survive. Higher man would never have evolved if the entire world was a garden of Eden.
I think animals may also become smarter, with man being the #1 predator of most large species, those in the wild will eventually adapt to avoiding traps and snares, fish in the ocean will develop a higher conciousness to avoid fishing nets and baited hooks. All life on earth is becoming more intelligent, the process of natural selection is a hard, long and painful process but most species, those which survive will eventually be better off for it.
I don't think what man is doing to the world is wrong, he is just following his natural instinct with is the same for all life. As long as the changes are slow and incremental, man will adapt to the changes and be better for it along with other life. The worse thing for life is a sudden change such as the dinosaur comet/sudden dinosaur earth expansion.
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true - by the wise as false - and by the rulers as useful." Lucius Annaeus Seneca
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| Watsisname | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 07:16 | Message # 424 |
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| Quote (expando) HarbingerDawn, you worry too much. Global Warming in my opinion is similar to the quote in my signature. Even if there is Climate Change, in a Darwinian sense this is good as it forces adaptation = evolution.
HarbingerDawn's concern is consistent with a rational and informed view of the world. You should try listening to him and others who have taken the time to educate themselves on these subjects.
edit:
Have you read nothing of what was told to you in the Conspiracy Thread, or are you just incredibly dense? Or are you intentionally trolling? I'm really beginning to wonder about you.
Edited by Watsisname - Saturday, 26.01.2013, 07:30 |
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| DoctorOfSpace | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 07:17 | Message # 425 |
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| Quote (expando) I think animals may also become smarter, with man being the #1 predator of most large species, those in the wild will eventually adapt to avoiding traps and snares, fish in the ocean will develop a higher conciousness to avoid fishing nets and baited hooks.
Please tell me you aren't serious about this
There is no evidence to support such claims, in fact the evidence suggest the contrary. A larger loss of life is happening due to the actions of mankind, both directly and indirectly. There is no "intelligence boom" that is happening. As a species we have grown far beyond many natural limitations and the farther we grow beyond natural selection the more of a threat we are to nature.
As of right now the only animals increasing in intelligence are lab rats that are genetically modified. Or animals like dogs that have been bred with such traits.
Quote (expando) I don't think what man is doing to the world is wrong, he is just following his natural instinct with is the same for all life.
Many of those natural instincts are part of the problem.
Quote (expando) As long as the changes are slow and incremental The current changes happening are happening far too fast for most life to adapt.
Quote (expando) man will adapt to the changes and be better for it along with other life.
Evolution is not about improving anything. Evolution is simply about what works, and what works in one environment may end up hindering our survival in future environments.
Quote (expando) sudden dinosaur earth expansion.
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Edited by DoctorOfSpace - Saturday, 26.01.2013, 07:18 |
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| expando | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 08:00 | Message # 426 |
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| Well regardless, all the carbon that was deposited under earth was once on the surface and was deposited beneath the surface by life. An argument can be made if man did not come along and redeposit the carbon back into the atmosphere, all life surface life would eventually die due to carbon starvation.
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true - by the wise as false - and by the rulers as useful." Lucius Annaeus Seneca
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| DoctorOfSpace | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 08:32 | Message # 427 |
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| Quote (expando) Well regardless, all the carbon that was deposited under earth was once on the surface and was deposited beneath the surface by life.
Where are you getting this "information" from?
Quote (expando) An argument can be made if man did not come along and redeposit the carbon back into the atmosphere, all life surface life would eventually die due to carbon starvation.
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| midtskogen | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 08:49 | Message # 428 |
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| Quote (Watsisname) Really? I find that rather surprising. It might be a regional thing. Here in Scandinavia we have for instance two relatively outspoken professors, Solheim and Humlum (the former in astrophysics, the other in geology).
Quote (Watsisname) Remember: although it is very difficult, we can disentangle and test each of the components that goes into climate sensitivity, It might not always be true in matters involving those pesky butterflies. If you study two different phenomena, and they seem to be distinct, and you compute their results accurately, it's not necessarily so that they accumulate arithmetically. Is anything in the atmosphere truly independent? I mastered in computer science, and I've worked with video compression for the past 13 years. I see some butterflies in my work as well. I can study two, quite different compression techniques separately. If they both reduce the bandwidth need by 10% (*0.9), I can't just assume that put together I get a 19% (0.9²) reduction. Quite often I can get something close to that, but I can't just assume it.
Quote (HarbingerDawn) It boils down to this: are humans altering the climate? Yes. Could this potentially have very negative consequences on human societies? Then the argument should be that this is for the humans, our civilization, not for the polar bears, coral reefs or whatever. That was my point.
Quote (HarbingerDawn) The argument is simply that it will cause a lot of trouble and hardship that we don't need How much must also be taken into the equation, so it can be weighed against the costs (too much could cause a lot of trouble and hardship we don't need). It's not black and white either. Like here in Scandinavia, judging by the trees that used to grow here a few thousand years ago that are scarce now, it must have been warmer then and it probably made it easier for those who lived here. The land might not have been settled then otherwise. Change will always make some suffer, other benefit. Ultimately, most of us only borrow the land we live on. Some places will turn into deserts, other places like here will be buried in ice. And coastal areas are always vulnerable, with or without humans. Most coastlines were pretty different a few thousand years ago.
As for fossil fuel, it has to stop anyway. So how do we solve that the quickest way? Wind power? Solar power? Shutting down nuclear power (which also could cause a lot of trouble, etc) Are those actions detours or steps towards what we really want? The objective must not come in the way of the discussion whether it's effective. And while overpopulation might be the real problem, one can think of it positively as well considering what 10 or 15 billion minds can invent and fix. In a few hundred years perhaps it will seem strange that the best use we could find for oil was to burn it, but on the other hand, if we hadn't been burning it, we wouldn't have had the means to develop something better. The best escapes are often the narrow ones.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
Edited by midtskogen - Saturday, 26.01.2013, 08:53 |
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| DoctorOfSpace | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 08:50 | Message # 429 |
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| Quote (expando) Coal, Oil, Gas is wildly believed to be the deposited remains of organisms, eg fossil fuels. Plants extract carbon from the atmosphere, deposit it in their trunks, sometimes they become burred underground. Same with animals, animals consume carbohydrates, fats/oils and proteins from plants which is used to build their bodies. Generally for the carbon to be burred underground, a sediment layer need to first be deposited over them or they fall into a swamp.
You do know about the carbon cycle don't you? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle
Quote Carbon flows between each reservoir in an exchange called the carbon cycle, which has slow and fast components. Any change in the cycle that shifts carbon out of one reservoir puts more carbon in the other reservoirs. Changes that put carbon gases into the atmosphere result in warmer temperatures on Earth. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Feature....eatures
Quote (expando) In regards to the animal "intelligence boom", I have not observed it, but it is something I think is reasonable to assume will happen over time.
If it were a constant fight of out smarting or dying then yes that would be a reasonable assumption. However when it comes to human ingenuity versus animal instinct there really is no competition.
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Edited by DoctorOfSpace - Saturday, 26.01.2013, 09:25 |
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| expando | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 13:34 | Message # 430 |
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| Regardless some percentage of the carbon cycle gets trapped underground every year. If it didn't, we would not have any fossil fuel reserves.
This a Motie from the book "the mote in god's eye". It is quite good, the second book, "the gripping hand" was pretty poor. On Mote Prime, their environment was so polluted that the water had a permanent petroleum taste. When they went off world and drank fresh water, they would keep a bottle of oil handy to flavour it.
Anyway, the Humans planned to keep them bottled up in their system and eventually exterminate them
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true - by the wise as false - and by the rulers as useful." Lucius Annaeus Seneca
Edited by expando - Saturday, 26.01.2013, 13:40 |
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| apenpaap | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 13:45 | Message # 431 |
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| Quote (expando) Regardless some percentage of the carbon cycle gets trapped underground every year. If it didn't, we would not have any fossil fuel reserves.
Except the fossil fuel reserves were mainly created during the Carboniferous, when much of the planet was a swamp and bacteria that could digest the newly-evolved wooden stems of plants hadn't evolved yet, causing lots and lots of anaerobic decomposition. Since then, barely any more fossil fuels have formed and the subsumed carbon is easily balanced by volcanic eruptions.
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| DoctorOfSpace | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 13:49 | Message # 432 |
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| Quote (apenpaap) Except the fossil fuel reserves were mainly created during the Carboniferous, when much of the planet was a swamp and bacteria that could digest the newly-evolved wooden stems of plants hadn't evolved yet, causing lots and lots of anaerobic decomposition.
Sometimes I find the absurdity in our luck to be quite amusing.
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 15:41 | Message # 433 |
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| Quote (midtskogen) Then the argument should be that this is for the humans, our civilization, not for the polar bears, coral reefs or whatever. That was my point. That is not the argument that I hear most commonly from people. Usually only the environmentalists use the polar bear pitch. Climate scientists are far more concerned about the human impact.
Quote (expando) I am undecided on this, I think the abiotic origin of carbon fuels also has merit. All mainstream climate scientists believe in the biological origin of carbon fuels thou. This is not even something that climatologists study, and in any case it is quite well established that oil is biological in origin.
Quote (expando) I don't think what man is doing to the world is wrong, he is just following his natural instinct with is the same for all life. My natural instincts often tell me to destroy property or assault people. Are you saying that the world would be better off if I were to stop controlling those instincts?
Your philosophy seems to be, "if it happens, then it's fine". I find this troubling.
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Edited by HarbingerDawn - Sunday, 27.01.2013, 04:21 |
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| Tim | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 18:36 | Message # 434 |
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| Well, there is a clear difference between instinct and selfconsciousness. The more a species becomes selfconscious, the less it counts on its instinct. Besides, say we would do whatever we feel nature tells us to do, we would eventually destroy ourselves. We've evolved into what we are, because our current traits give us a higher chance of survival. That evolution, however, is not programmed and does not take into account the future, only the now. So if we want to survive longer than that, we'll have to let go of the instinct and start thinking for ourselves.
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| Spyro | Date: Saturday, 26.01.2013, 23:17 | Message # 435 |
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| Quote Your philosophy seems to be, "if it happens, then it's fine". I find this troubling. I agree. With all the alternate universes taken into perspective, everything possible happens. So that means that "if it happens, then it's fine" belief, that means it's perfectly okay to crash into other people, buy 1858265978784966577653856 cats, or let chickens be treated this way:
I'm back, but am I here to stay? Hopefully!
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