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Asteroids, meteors, and meteorites
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| neutronium76 | Date: Friday, 24.01.2014, 16:20 | Message # 151 |
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| Quote DIS7RICT (  ) we still have no idea if there is other organic life in the Solar system
True. However, based on current observational evidence, our solar system is probably dead.
Quote midtskogen ( ) Meteorites may contain quite a lot of water
Comets yes. Meteorites, if they contain, is probably mixed with a lot of other elements or chemicals and is in a very ''contaminated'' state. Even comets which are believed that contain plenty, have it mixed with dirt and dust. What we see when a comet approaches the sun is this dust and dirt that is being thrown out due to evaporation of all volatile stuff that is trapped within the dust.
Added (24.01.2014, 19:20)
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Quote HarbingerDawn ( ) is because they use spectrometers to detect the composition?
Aha so that's how they know. Ok then, Ceres is an exception.
Quote HarbingerDawn ( ) hat water is the single most abundant compound and second most abundant molecule in the universe, and that the majority of objects in the solar system are composed largely of water ice? Water is not rare; it is extremely common
I know of that but I have my doubts and my own beliefs on that matter.
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Edited by neutronium76 - Friday, 24.01.2014, 16:23 |
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| DIS7RICT | Date: Friday, 24.01.2014, 17:02 | Message # 152 |
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| I'm certainly no expert but I have some things to say on these matters.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) True. However, based on current observational evidence, our solar system is probably dead.
But there isn't any proper observational evidence dismissing life, except on the obvious planets. There is a little evidence for life on Mars though. It has water-ice just under the surface as physically seen by the Phoenix lander. However I'm (or anyone else for that matter) not saying that it has life, but that the chance for subsurface life is there, however small it may be. There is also evidence for sub-surface oceans existing on Callisto, Dione, Enceladus and Europa, which could also support life, and now possibly but unlikely, Ceres. There is still a lot to see and find, so making that assumption so soon isn't a good idea. This isn't the future, we don't have devices that we point to other planets that read back "NO LIFE SIGNS DETECTED". We need to go there to be sure.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) Comets yes. Meteorites, if they contain, is probably mixed with a lot of other elements or chemicals and is in a very ''contaminated'' state. Even comets which are believed that contain plenty, have it mixed with dirt and dust. What we see when a comet approaches the sun is this dust and dirt that is being thrown out due to evaporation of all volatile stuff that is trapped within the dust.
So you're saying that the all the oceans, rivers, lakes, ponds and puddles on earth aren't all mixed with dirt, dust and other elements? Of course they are, and they even have life in almost every single one of them. No one was insisting it was pure water to begin with.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) Aha so that's how they know. Ok then, Ceres is an exception.
What the..? Didn't you read any of the released information, or even know anything about how we study other worlds? How else were we supposed to know? We didn't just take a picture and say "Hey, that must be water spurting out over there!".
Quote neutronium76 ( ) I know of that but I have my own beliefs on that matter.
It doesn't matter how much you believe otherwise, the evidence is there and it points to the fact. What is the point in believing something if you can't prove it in any way, shape or form? What exactly are your beliefs and how do you back them up, and with what evidence?
Anyone with higher knowledge may correct me if I am misleading anywhere.
EDIT: Sorry if I seem harsh or mean, I'm not trying to be.
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There'll be another time...
Edited by DIS7RICT - Friday, 24.01.2014, 17:07 |
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| neutronium76 | Date: Friday, 24.01.2014, 17:35 | Message # 153 |
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| Quote DIS7RICT ( ) It has water-ice just under the surface as physically seen by the Phoenix lander
Current evidence suggests that it is very unlikely. Probably false readings from the device.
Quote DIS7RICT ( ) We need to go there to be sure
No we don't. there is enough evidence that there is no life in our solar system.
Quote DIS7RICT ( ) So you're saying that the all the oceans, rivers, lakes, ponds and puddles on earth aren't all mixed with dirt, dust and other elements? Of course they are, and they even have life in almost every single one of them. No one was insisting it was pure water to begin with.
Conditions on earth permit life even on dirty water. Conditions in space don't.
Quote DIS7RICT ( ) We didn't just take a picture and say "Hey, that must be water spurting out over there!".
I thought that this was how we discover water.
Quote DIS7RICT ( ) the evidence is there and it points to the fact.
The evidence is not conclusive. We have to look more carefully.
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Friday, 24.01.2014, 17:40 | Message # 154 |
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| Quote neutronium76 ( ) I know of that but I have my doubts and my own beliefs on that matter.
So a spectrometer detecting water on Ceres is acceptable evidence, but it's not acceptable when it comes to all the other water that has been detected in the universe? And like DIS7RICT said, your beliefs are irrelevant since they have no bearing on what is actually true.
EDIT: Ok, from that last post you made (after I made this one), I have to conclude that you're either trolling or just don't care about the truth in any way. You refuse to accept even the most definitive and concrete evidence of an obvious fact: that water is abundant in the universe. In either case, there is no point in continued discussion.
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Edited by HarbingerDawn - Friday, 24.01.2014, 17:43 |
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| DIS7RICT | Date: Friday, 24.01.2014, 18:31 | Message # 155 |
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| Quote neutronium76 ( ) Current evidence suggests that it is very unlikely. Probably false readings from the device.
How can physically seeing water-ice evaporate be a false reading? It wasn't a reading.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) No we don't. there is enough evidence that there is no life in our solar system.
What? You can't be serious can you? Did you not listen to anything I said? What evidence are you talking about. Please show us and any scientist out there so we can stop wasting millions of dollars and all of our time trying to find it then.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) Conditions on earth permit life even on dirty water. Conditions in space don't.
I wasn't saying they did permit life or needed to on asteroids. Of course life can't exist in a vacuum. What were you trying to prove when you were saying it was dirty water to begin with?
Quote neutronium76 ( ) I thought that this was how we discover water.
You really need to learn some more about how we do these things. I don't think you have even the slightest idea.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) The evidence is not conclusive. We have to look more carefully.
It may not be conclusive, but at the moment all the evidence to suggest that it is, is there.
Why do I have this feeling you don't know what you are talking about. It's like you do not want to believe that there is life elsewhere. It's almost like you're religious in some way and your beliefs do not allow for such a thing.
Quote HarbingerDawn ( ) In either case, there is no point in continued discussion.
I seem to agree with you on this one.
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There'll be another time...
Edited by DIS7RICT - Friday, 24.01.2014, 18:35 |
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| Solaris | Date: Thursday, 03.04.2014, 21:06 | Message # 156 |
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| wow, outstanding ! The skydiver is quite lucky, the meteorite fall pretty close from him..
I hope you guys will find that rock !
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Thursday, 03.04.2014, 21:39 | Message # 157 |
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| ...that is the most unbelievable thing I have ever seen. Even with the video evidence I have a hard time believing it. That might be the most unlikely thing ever captured on film. If someone reported something like that and didn't have video of it, no one would believe it. That's really amazing.
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| midtskogen | Date: Thursday, 03.04.2014, 21:57 | Message # 158 |
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| Going public with the video is an invitation for anyone to solve the riddle. The story is totally improbable. I and many others have spent countless hours analysing the video. Yes, there are missing pieces of the puzzle, most important a missing meteorite, but we've been unable to find any other acceptable explanation. Unless we've missed important clues, a meteorite however unlikely it sounds appears more probable than the alternatives. The videos are not faked.
Almost two years have passed. It's perhaps a tough decision to go public without the crucial evidence for such a wild story, but I think it's the right thing to do.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
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| neutronium76 | Date: Thursday, 03.04.2014, 22:35 | Message # 159 |
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| Has anybody thought of the possibility the 2nd skydiver (the object's trajectory is different from the 2nd skydiver) another skydiver that is flying above (and out of the camera's FOV - hence invisible to the camera) intentionally throwing an object close to the 1st one?
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Edited by neutronium76 - Thursday, 03.04.2014, 22:47 |
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| anonymousgamer | Date: Thursday, 03.04.2014, 22:37 | Message # 160 |
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| There's another object visible in the video. A few frames before the main one enters view, look at the bottom left of the video. You'll see another object.
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Thursday, 03.04.2014, 23:34 | Message # 161 |
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| Quote anonymousgamer ( ) There's another object visible in the video. A few frames before the main one enters view, look at the bottom left of the video. You'll see another object.
That's the other skydiver. Its location and apparent size are consistent with his.
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| midtskogen | Date: Friday, 04.04.2014, 04:47 | Message # 162 |
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| Quote HarbingerDawn ( ) That's the other skydiver. Its location and apparent size are consistent with his.
Yes. I recall that our first reaction was, "wait, is there another rock there"? But as Harb says, its location and apparent size are consistent with the other skydiver. I'm 100% sure it is.
Quote neutronium76 ( ) Has anybody thought of the possibility the 2nd skydiver (the object's trajectory is different from the 2nd skydiver) another skydiver that is flying above (and out of the camera's FOV - hence invisible to the camera) intentionally throwing an object close to the 1st one?
Anders and Jon Vegar were the two last out of the airplane, and it can clearly be seen that Jon Vegar is too far away in the frames just before the rock appears. Here's the video from Jon Vegar's camera showing Anders, slowed down and stabilised. By the time he get's close, the rock is long gone. Unfortunatly, no meteorite can be detected in this video. Even Anders is barely visible at the moment it passes.
We're all periodically haunted by the idea that a meteorite is so unlikely that it has to be something else. Did he pack something into his chute? I really can't get the angle to match for that, and I don't see the expected accelleration. It also appears to be moving way too fast for that, though one could imagine becoming fooled by the perspective - what if it's really close, passing just centimetres away from the camera? But I'm not able to match that with what's visible in the backward facing camera. There is nothing else above him. Did something drop from another airplane invisible at 11000 metre cruising altitude? Well, what and how? It really looks like a rock, it's dark for sure, and it even looks like a meteorite, though I'm less convinced than Hans in the interview that it really has a bright face with visible chondrules. I mean, though that's consistent with what we see, shadows could also alone explain it.
If the object is at between 2.5 and 6.5 metres away, the speed is consistent with a meteorite travelling at terminal velocity. I also think that the objection with the greatest merit would be that it's possible to be fooled by the perspective - what if it's passing much closer to the lens. But what then could it be? Its phenomenal spin also suggests that it's not a huge object many metres away (then in should also appear in Jon Vegar's video).
The analysis is tricky, because we don't know precisely what speed and direction Anders is moving at (though it's clear from the curved trajectory of the object in the back facing camera that they move in different directions). The parachute was deployed seconds before and Anders still has a significant speed. Last summer I even equipped Anders with sensors bundled with a Raspberry Pi and a battery pack as a logger and he tried to replicate the jump. The sensor included a fast GPS, gyros, accellerometers, pressure sensor and everything, reporting at 25 Hz. It gave a lot of data, consistent with what we already assumed, but the data seem a bit inaccurate in the time resolution used. So that experiment didn't really give much new information.
So we've tried to approach this in a lot of ways. In less than a day NRK's video edits have got a million views. I really hope people analyse the videos and discover something new and challenge our assumptions.
For positioning we've used a number of techniques. We have a clearly visible anti-solar point, the sun, the horizon, clouds and their shadows. I don't think there's much doubt abot the position within an accuracy of 100 metres. And whatever it was, it reached ground and will still be there, unless it was a piece of black ice. The shape is clear enough to make it possible to recognise the same object on the ground unless it's shattered into dust.
I might go back soon to look some more once the snow clears in the next few weeks. Then there is a window of another few weeks when the conditions for searching are better, before low low vegetation cover up the ground. But for the most part the ground is covered with soft moss.
I think among all of us who've been involved in this share an attutude that even if we're mistaken this is still such a great story worth every second we've spent working with it. Anders is perhaps the greatest sceptic among us. But consider what he's doing. Wingsuit diving. Unknowns are not acceptable among these people. They do wild stuff, but are not cowboys. They have to be very calculating people. And such are their personalities as well.
I'm eager to see if crowdsourcing will solve this mystery.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
Edited by midtskogen - Friday, 04.04.2014, 07:36 |
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Friday, 04.04.2014, 13:12 | Message # 163 |
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| I agree with your assessments; despite being spectacularly improbable, there doesn't seem to be any explanation that fits other than it being a meteorite.
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| midtskogen | Date: Friday, 04.04.2014, 14:24 | Message # 164 |
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| Some shots from "ground zero" giving an idea of the terrain (could be better, could be worse). Yes, that's Anders searching the river in the second shot. Photos by Morten Bilet.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
Edited by midtskogen - Friday, 04.04.2014, 14:32 |
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| HarbingerDawn | Date: Tuesday, 08.04.2014, 00:14 | Message # 165 |
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| midtskogen, you were mentioned in the latest Bad Astronomy blog 
http://www.slate.com/blogs....ck.html
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